Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a resurgence in support among bettors, reclaiming the lead from former President Donald Trump following Tuesday’s debate. Betting odds at U.K. and offshore sites, regularly monitored by USA TODAY, now favor Harris, with over $1.1 million wagered during the debate at Betfair Exchange. This shift marks the second time in the campaign that betting action, not involving U.S. betting houses due to legal restrictions, has favored Harris. The odds swing was less drastic than President Joe Biden’s drop after a June debate, showcasing the volatility of political betting markets.
As of September 12, various betting platforms reflect Harris as the frontrunner, with Bet 365 showing her at -125 and Bovada at -115, while Donald Trump is listed as even or with slightly less favorable odds. The accuracy of election odds is highlighted, with the favorite historically prevailing, barring only two instances since 1866. Notably, Harris holds a narrower lead over Trump compared to past Democratic nominees at a similar stage in the election cycle, hinting at a closely contested race ahead.
Looking back at previous upsets, the Conversation notes instances like Harry Truman’s unexpected victory in 1948 against long odds. This historical context emphasizes the unpredictability of elections and the potential for underdogs to defy expectations. With the betting landscape evolving, the shifting odds reflect the dynamic nature of political campaigns and the ongoing speculation surrounding the upcoming presidential election.
