The analysis of Trump’s first tariff war reveals a stark reality for farmers, with bankruptcies surging and farm consolidation looming, particularly benefiting major corporations at the expense of independent farmers. The devastating impact of retaliatory tariffs cost US farmers $27bn, leading to a 24% increase in farm bankruptcies, the highest in a decade. Small farms faced the brunt, experiencing a 14% decline, while larger operations saw significant growth.

The trade war’s effects were concentrated in the Midwest, affecting export-dependent commodities like corn, soy, and livestock. States with diverse agricultural sectors fared better, hinting at the trade war’s role in insolvencies. The $28bn tariff bailout disproportionately favored mega-farms over small-scale and minority farmers, with the top 1% receiving $183,331 on average while the majority got less than $5,000 each.

The second term of Trump’s trade war poses further harm to farmers and rural communities, exacerbating existing challenges like climate shocks and racial inequalities. The shift towards benefiting corporations and mega-farms underlines a flawed agricultural system that neglects small and diversified farms. The administration’s denial of the harm caused by the tariffs raises concerns about future trade relations and market disruptions. As uncertainties loom, the fate of US farmers hangs in the balance, with potential consequences for the entire agricultural landscape.