Donald Trump has reiterated claims of significant damage to Iran’s nuclear sites, particularly highlighting the Fordow underground facility, despite the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inability to assess the extent of the damage. Trump’s assertion of the sites being “obliterated” contrasts with more cautious language from the Pentagon and Israeli officials. The US, Israel, and the IAEA rely on surface satellite imagery and information from Iran’s nuclear agency for assessments, with satellite images revealing unusual activity at Fordow prior to the US attack.
Israeli jets targeted Fordow to impede access routes, causing significant but not total destruction. Rafael Grossi of the IAEA noted the expected substantial damage due to explosive payloads and centrifuge sensitivity, emphasizing the need for on-site inspections. The status of Iran’s uranium stockpile and technology removal from the attacked sites remains a crucial question. Experts like Joseph Rodgers suggest the US bunker busters targeted ventilation shafts for direct access to underground facilities.
Despite the strikes, doubts persist among analysts like Jeffrey Lewis regarding the efficacy of the operation in fully dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s retention of enriched uranium and potential undisclosed sites raise concerns about the long-term impact of the military actions. Lewis emphasizes the strategic implications and the need for a comprehensive approach to address Iran’s nuclear capabilities effectively. The complexity of the situation underscores the challenges in achieving desired outcomes through military tactics alone.
